Key facts
- A special election in Makerfield, England, on June 18 could determine the UK's next prime minister.
- Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, is the Labour Party candidate seeking a parliamentary seat.
- Reform UK is campaigning on an anti-immigration platform, aiming to win the traditionally Labour stronghold.
- Immigration is a significant concern for voters in the constituency.
- Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces internal party pressure due to economic and public service challenges.
A special election in the northwest England constituency of Makerfield on June 18 is drawing significant attention as it could potentially influence the leadership of the UK's Labour Party and the country's political direction.
Andy Burnham, the popular Labour mayor of Greater Manchester, is seeking to win a seat in Parliament through this by-election. If successful, he is seen as a strong contender to challenge the current Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, for leadership of the Labour Party and potentially the nation. Burnham, who previously served as a Member of Parliament and a minister, has adopted an 'outsider' persona, earning him the nickname 'King of the North,' and aims to implement his regional successes nationally.
The election is taking place in a traditional Labour stronghold that has elected Labour lawmakers for 120 years. However, the Reform UK party, led by Nigel Farage, is mounting a strong challenge, capitalizing on anti-immigration sentiment. Reform UK recently secured a significant majority of council seats in the area during local elections, indicating a potential shift in voter allegiance.
Immigration is a prominent issue for many voters in Makerfield, with some expressing concerns that high levels of immigration are straining public services and the taxpayer. This sentiment is amplified by recent events, including violent protests in Northern Ireland following a stabbing incident involving a Sudanese national. While annual net migration to the UK has seen a decline from its 2023 peak, the issue remains a focal point for voters.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer's government has faced challenges in delivering economic growth and improving public services, compounded by political missteps. These difficulties have led to internal calls for his resignation, although he has refused to step down. The departure of Cabinet minister Wes Streeting to potentially run in a leadership contest further highlights the internal party dynamics.
Burnham's main opponent in Makerfield is Rob Kenyon, a plumber and local councilor representing Reform UK. Kenyon has faced criticism for past social media comments. Another hardline anti-immigration party, Restore, is also targeting voters in the constituency. The election is thus framed as a test of whether Reform UK can gain traction in traditionally Labour areas and a gauge of the public mood on immigration and the current government's performance.