Key facts
- Oppenheimer initiated coverage of SpaceX with an "outperform" rating and a $190 price target.
- The target implies a 41% upside from SpaceX's IPO price of $135.
- Oppenheimer forecasts a $2.5 trillion market capitalization for SpaceX within 12-18 months.
- Analyst Timothy Horan highlighted SpaceX's integrated AI capabilities, including data, LLMs, hardware, and talent.
- New Street Research set a 12-month price target of $165 for SpaceX.
- Morningstar previously valued SpaceX at $780 billion.
Oppenheimer has become the first global brokerage to initiate coverage of SpaceX, setting an "outperform" rating and a $190 price target ahead of the company's anticipated market debut. This target suggests a potential upside of nearly 41% from the IPO price of $135.
The brokerage anticipates that SpaceX could achieve a market capitalization of approximately $2.5 trillion within the next 12 to 18 months, a valuation significantly higher than the $1.75 trillion reportedly targeted for its debut. This contrasts with a previous valuation of $780 billion from Morningstar analysts earlier in the month.
Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan highlighted SpaceX's unique position as a vertically integrated AI company, possessing essential capital, data, large language models, hardware, manufacturing capabilities, and engineering talent. Horan expects the Starlink satellite internet service to be a primary cash generator, with the AI business becoming the largest contributor over time.
Horan also noted that an eventual merger with Tesla is plausible, but believes both companies will maintain a quasi-vertically integrated ecosystem to ensure continued access to capital. Unlike IPO underwriters, which face a quiet period, brokerages outside the syndicate can publish research views shortly before or immediately after a market debut.
New Street Research followed with its own coverage, setting a 12-month price target of $165. Horan expects "an initial demand/supply imbalance on SPCX shares given broad retail demand and accelerated index inclusion," following the market debut.