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Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness bet big on SanDisk and Micron before it blew up

Created at 17 Aug · 1:56 PM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

Leopold Aschenbrenner's hedge fund, Situational Awareness, held massive stakes in SanDisk and Micron, accounting for 56% of its $20 billion portfolio at the end of June. The fund's fortunes reversed in July, leading to a 67% loss and margin calls.

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Key Numbers

$5.7 billionSituational Awareness stake in SanDisk
$5.6 billionSituational Awareness stake in Micron
56%SanDisk and Micron holdings as % of US stock portfolio
$20 billionSituational Awareness US stock portfolio value
$4 billionSituational Awareness direct stock holdings at end of March
4.8 millionMicron shares held by Situational Awareness
2.6 millionTSMC American Depositary Shares held by Situational Awareness
$1.2 billionSituational Awareness stake in Nebius
16Number of option positions at end of March
2Number of call option positions at end of June
1Number of put option positions at end of June
47%SanDisk stock decline in July
29%
Micron stock decline in July
67%Situational Awareness portfolio loss in July

Who's Involved

Leopold Aschenbrenner
Founder and chief investor of Situational Awareness
Situational Awareness
Hedge fund that imploded in late July
SanDisk
Memory-and-storage chipmaker
Micron
Memory-and-storage chipmaker
TSMC
Chip manufacturer
Nebius
Company in which Situational Awareness took a stake
Citadel
Hedge fund that acquired most of Situational Awareness's stocks
Ken Griffin
Billionaire investor and head of Citadel
Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness bet big on SanDisk and Micron before it blew up

↳ Why This Matters

The dramatic rise and fall of Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness highlights the extreme risks and potential rewards of concentrated bets in volatile sectors like AI and semiconductors. The fund's rapid growth and subsequent implosion serve as a cautionary tale about leverage and market timing.

Key facts

  • Leopold Aschenbrenner's hedge fund, Situational Awareness, held $5.7 billion in SanDisk and $5.6 billion in Micron at the end of June.
  • These two positions constituted 56% of the firm's US stock portfolio, valued at over $20 billion.
  • The firm's direct stock holdings grew more than fivefold in the quarter ending June 30.
  • SanDisk and Micron shares experienced significant declines of 47% and 29% respectively in July.
  • Situational Awareness's portfolio lost 67% of its value in July, leading to margin calls and asset sales.

Leopold Aschenbrenner, the founder of the hedge fund Situational Awareness, made substantial investments in SanDisk and Micron shortly before the fund's collapse in late July. According to its quarterly portfolio update, Situational Awareness held stakes worth $5.7 billion in SanDisk and $5.6 billion in Micron as of June 30. These positions represented 56% of the firm's US stock portfolio, which totaled just over $20 billion. This marked a significant increase from the end of March, when the firm's direct holdings were less than $4 billion, primarily in Bloom Energy.

The firm also increased its investment in TSMC and established a $1.2 billion stake in Nebius. Concurrently, Situational Awareness reduced its exposure to options, cutting its number of put positions from 16 to one, suggesting an increase in risk appetite. The firm's concentrated bets on SanDisk and Micron, coupled with a reduction in protective put options, highlighted a shift towards higher-risk positions.

However, the strategy proved disastrous. Shares of SanDisk and Micron plummeted by 47% and 29% respectively in July, as investors took profits amid concerns over high valuations. This sell-off, combined with a broader decline in AI stocks, led to a 67% loss for Situational Awareness's highly leveraged portfolio. The fund faced margin calls from lenders, forcing Aschenbrenner to sell most of his publicly traded stocks to Citadel, the hedge fund led by billionaire investor Ken Griffin.

Frequently asked questions

Leopold Aschenbrenner is the founder and chief investor of Situational Awareness, a hedge fund that experienced a significant collapse in late July. He is a former OpenAI researcher and a Columbia valedictorian.

At the end of June, Situational Awareness's largest holdings were SanDisk, with a $5.7 billion stake, and Micron, with a $5.6 billion stake. These two positions accounted for 56% of its US stock portfolio.

The fund's highly leveraged portfolio sank by 67% in July due to a sell-off in AI stocks and a decline in its major holdings, SanDisk and Micron, leading to margin calls from lenders.

13F filings are quarterly reports that U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) registrants must file to disclose their U.S. equity holdings. They provide a snapshot of a firm's portfolio on a specific day.

What Happens Next

01Aschenbrenner did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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How It Developed

Leopold Aschenbrenner's firm, Situational Awareness, had a $5.7 billion stake in SanDisk and a $5.6 billion stake in Micron at the end of June.
These holdings represented 56% of the firm's US stock portfolio, which was valued at just over $20 billion.
The firm's direct stock holdings increased from less than $4 billion at the end of March to over $20 billion by June 30.
Situational Awareness also increased its stake in TSMC and established a $1.2 billion stake in Nebius.
The firm reduced its number of option positions, including puts on several semiconductor-related ETFs and stocks.
SanDisk and Micron shares fell significantly in July, by 47% and 29% respectively.
Situational Awareness's portfolio dropped by 67% in July due to a sell-off in AI stocks.
The fund experienced margin calls, compelling Aschenbrenner to sell most of his publicly traded stocks to Citadel.

Sources

T1
Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness bet big on SanDisk and Micron before it blew upBusiness Insider

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