Key facts
- Instacart forecasts third-quarter gross transaction value (GTV) between $10.13 billion and $10.28 billion, exceeding analyst estimates of $9.95 billion.
- The company expects current-quarter adjusted earnings before tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) to be between $280 million and $290 million, surpassing analyst expectations of $279.5 million.
- For the fourth quarter, Instacart reported GTV of $9.85 billion, a 14% increase year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA of $303 million.
- Instacart's advertising revenue grew 16% to $297 million in the April-June quarter.
- The company's advertising arm closed the year with approximately 9,000 active brands.
Instacart has forecast strong performance for the current quarter, projecting gross transaction value (GTV) and core profit to surpass analyst expectations. This optimism is fueled by robust consumer demand for online grocery deliveries, particularly for essentials, and a growing advertising business.
For the current quarter, Instacart anticipates GTV to range between $10.13 billion and $10.28 billion, exceeding the average analyst estimate of $9.95 billion. The company also expects adjusted earnings before tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) to fall between $280 million and $290 million, slightly above the $279.5 million analysts were predicting.
In the most recent reported quarter (ended December 31), Instacart exceeded expectations with GTV rising 14% year-over-year to $9.85 billion and adjusted EBITDA reaching $303 million, surpassing the $292.2 million estimate. Orders increased by 16% during this period.
The company's advertising arm also showed significant growth, with revenue increasing 10% to $294 million in the fourth quarter and reaching $1 billion for the full year 2025. The number of active brands on its platform grew by 2,000 from the previous year to approximately 9,000.
Analysts note that the health of Instacart's core business reflects a broader revival in digital grocery growth, which had previously slowed as food inflation made delivery costs less justifiable. However, Instacart faces increasing competition from players like Amazon, which is planning a rapid delivery service, and Uber Eats' expanded partnership with Kroger.