Key facts
- Circle's stock has come under pressure due to the launch of a rival stablecoin, Open USD (OUSD).
- The OUSD stablecoin is supported by over 140 companies, including Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, BlackRock, BNY, and Coinbase.
- Circle's share price dropped 24% to $60.46 after the OUSD launch and subsequent delisting from Russell Growth indexes.
- Analysts from Mizuho and JPMorgan have lowered price estimates and earnings expectations for Circle.
- Circle President Heath Tarbert sold nearly $30.8 million in company stock and options since June 2025.
- Circle received final approval from the OCC to establish Circle National Trust, a federally supervised trust bank.
Circle's stock has experienced significant downward pressure following the introduction of a competing stablecoin, Open USD (OUSD), and substantial stock sales by its President. The launch of OUSD, backed by a consortium of major financial and tech firms including Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, BlackRock, BNY, and Coinbase, has fueled bearish sentiment among Wall Street analysts regarding Circle's future growth prospects and profit margins.
Mizuho analysts reduced their price target for Circle's stock to $50, citing concerns that OUSD's revenue-sharing model could strain Circle's margins and increase distribution costs. JPMorgan also lowered its earnings expectations for both Circle and Coinbase, attributing this to potential revenue sharing adjustments for USDC balances on platforms like Hyperliquid, which could diminish reserve income if USDC adoption grows.
Adding to the stock's woes, Circle's President, Heath Tarbert, has sold approximately $30.8 million worth of company shares and exercised options between June 2025 and July 2026. Despite these sales, Tarbert reportedly still holds over 503,000 shares and has previously emphasized Circle's long-term focus over daily stock fluctuations, highlighting the network effects of USDC, which circulates on 34 blockchains with a value of roughly $73 billion.
Circle has continued to expand its regulated infrastructure, recently receiving final approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) on July 10 to establish Circle National Trust, a federally supervised trust bank. However, analysts like Mizuho remain skeptical that this development alone will be sufficient to counteract the competitive pressures and financial strains indicated by the OUSD launch and its associated revenue-sharing mechanisms.