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Big banks beat Q2 mortgage origination forecasts

Created at 14 Jul · 4:51 PM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

Major U.S. banks significantly surpassed second-quarter mortgage origination expectations, reporting an average volume increase of 32% from the previous quarter. This performance offers a potential positive signal for nonbank lenders awaiting their earnings reports.

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Key Numbers

32%average Q2 mortgage origination volume increase
3%analyst expectation for Q2 volume increase
6%industry forecast for Q2 volume increase
$17.2 billionJPMorgan Chase Q2 mortgage originations
26%JPMorgan Chase quarter-over-quarter volume increase
$9 billionWells Fargo Q2 mortgage production
43%Wells Fargo quarter-over-quarter volume increase
$8.2 billionBank of America Q2 mortgage originations
28.4%Bank of America quarter-over-quarter volume increase
44 basis pointsJPMorgan's gain-on-sale margin decline
85 bpsJPMorgan's Q2 gain-on-sale margin
$361.4 billionWells Fargo third-party mortgages serviced
7%Wells Fargo servicing portfolio decrease
$652.8 billionJPMorgan Chase servicing portfolio
1%JPMorgan Chase servicing portfolio decrease
$9.1 billionBank of America Q2 net income
$21.1 billionJPMorgan Chase Q2 net income
$6.4 billionWells Fargo Q2 net income

Who's Involved

BTIG analysts
noted banks' Q2 volumes exceeded expectations and industry forecasts
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) analysts
questioned if volume gains reflect industry-wide growth or banks taking market share
JPMorgan Chase
reported $17.2 billion in Q2 mortgage originations, up 26% QoQ
Wells Fargo
delivered $9 billion in Q2 mortgage production, a 43% spike QoQ
Bank of America
originated $8.2 billion in mortgages and $2.9 billion in home equity loans in Q2
Alastair Borthwick
Bank of America's chief financial officer, commented on stable mortgage balances and home equity growth
Michael Santomassimo
Wells Fargo's CFO, discussed declining home lending revenue and servicing business reduction
Charlie Scharf
Wells Fargo chairman and CEO, noted affordability concerns but robust labor market
Jamie Dimon
JPMorgan's chairman and CEO, commented on resilient U.S. economy and shifting risks
Big banks beat Q2 mortgage origination forecasts

↳ Why This Matters

The strong mortgage origination performance by major banks suggests a more robust housing finance market than anticipated, potentially easing pressure on nonbank lenders and indicating resilience in consumer borrowing despite elevated interest rates.

Key facts

  • Big banks' Q2 mortgage origination volume increased by an average of 32% quarter-over-quarter.
  • This volume surpassed analyst expectations of a 3% increase and industry forecasts of 6%.
  • JPMorgan Chase originated $17.2 billion, Wells Fargo $9 billion, and Bank of America $8.2 billion in mortgages.
  • JPMorgan's gain-on-sale margins declined, impacting production revenue.
  • Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase saw decreases in their mortgage servicing portfolios.

Major U.S. banks significantly surpassed expectations for mortgage origination volume in the second quarter of 2026, with an average increase of 32% compared to the previous quarter. This strong performance offers a potential positive sign for nonbank lenders who are set to report their earnings soon.

Analysts from BTIG observed that the banks' Q2 volumes were considerably higher than their own 3% increase expectation and industry forecasts of 6%. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) analysts noted that while volume was up, it remains uncertain whether this reflects overall industry growth or if banks are capturing market share from nonbank lenders.

JPMorgan Chase originated $17.2 billion in mortgages during the second quarter, a 26% increase from the prior period, with its retail channel contributing $10.6 billion and correspondent business $6.6 billion. Wells Fargo reported $9 billion in mortgage production, a 43% jump driven by its retail branch network. Bank of America originated $8.2 billion in mortgages, up 28.4% from Q1, alongside $2.9 billion in home equity loans.

Bank of America's CFO, Alastair Borthwick, stated that combined first- and second-lien mortgage balances remained stable due to elevated rates, with home equity growth continuing for the ninth consecutive quarter. Although Bank of America and Wells Fargo do not disclose gain-on-sale (GOS) margins, JPMorgan's margins declined by 44 basis points to 85 bps, leading to a 17% drop in production revenue. KBW analysts suggested this decline might have been worse than anticipated, potentially due to pipeline hedge losses or one-time items.

In the servicing sector, Wells Fargo's third-party mortgages serviced totaled $361.4 billion, a 7% decrease quarter-over-quarter, as the bank continues to scale back its presence in this area. JPMorgan Chase's servicing portfolio saw a smaller dip of 1% to $652.8 billion. Wells Fargo's CFO, Michael Santomassimo, noted that home lending revenue decreased 7% year-over-year due to lower loan balances, but the rate of reduction has slowed, with balances stable from Q1. He also highlighted a 21% year-over-year reduction in third-party mortgage loans serviced for others.

Overall, Wells Fargo reported $6.4 billion in net income for Q2, an increase from $5.4 billion a year ago. Chairman and CEO Charlie Scharf acknowledged concerns about affordability and inflation but pointed to a robust labor market and wage growth. JPMorgan posted $21.1 billion in net income, up from $16.4 billion in Q2 2023. Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan's chairman and CEO, described the U.S. economy as resilient, supported by AI investment and fiscal stimulus, but warned of underlying risks like geopolitical tensions and sticky inflation.

Bank of America's net income for the quarter was $9.1 billion, up from $7.2 billion in the same period last year.

Frequently asked questions

Big banks reported an average increase of 32% in mortgage origination volume in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the previous three-month period.

The banks' Q2 volumes significantly exceeded industry forecasts of a 6% increase and analyst expectations of a 3% increase.

JPMorgan Chase originated $17.2 billion, Wells Fargo produced $9 billion, and Bank of America originated $8.2 billion in mortgages during the second quarter.

Wells Fargo's third-party mortgages serviced decreased by 7% quarter-over-quarter, while JPMorgan Chase's servicing portfolio dipped by 1%.

What Happens Next

01Nonbank lenders are set to report their Q2 earnings in the coming weeks.
02KBW analysts are modeling flat gain-on-sale margins by channel for nonbank mortgage originators.

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How It Developed

Big banks reported a 32% average increase in mortgage origination volume for Q2 2026.
This volume increase exceeded analyst expectations of 3% and industry forecasts of 6%.
JPMorgan Chase originated $17.2 billion in mortgages, a 26% increase quarter-over-quarter.
Wells Fargo produced $9 billion in mortgages, a 43% increase from Q1.
Bank of America originated $8.2 billion in mortgages, up 28.4% from Q1.
JPMorgan's gain-on-sale margins declined 44 basis points to 85 bps.
Wells Fargo's third-party mortgages serviced decreased 7% quarter-over-quarter.
JPMorgan's servicing portfolio dipped 1% in the same period.

Sources

T1
Big banks crush Q2 mortgage origination expectationsHousingWire

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