Key facts
- Apple's market capitalization reached approximately $4.995 trillion, surpassing Nvidia's $4.768 trillion.
- Apple's chance of finishing July as the world's largest company is estimated at 79% on Polymarket.
- Nvidia's chance of finishing July as the world's largest company is estimated at 22% on Polymarket.
- Apple is scheduled to report its fiscal third-quarter results on July 30.
- Polymarket contracts resolve based on which company has the largest market capitalization at market close on July 31.
Apple has regained its position as the world's most valuable company, surpassing Nvidia with a market capitalization of approximately $4.995 trillion compared to Nvidia's $4.768 trillion as of Tuesday's close. This lead of roughly $227 billion comes with three trading sessions left before the end of July, the settlement date for a prediction market on Polymarket where Apple's chances of retaining the top spot surged to 79%.
Investors are reportedly growing cautious about the high capital expenditures associated with artificial intelligence, a sector where Nvidia is a central player. Concerns have been raised about AI companies financing their customers, with reports suggesting Nvidia could back a significant data-center project for OpenAI. Apple, meanwhile, has adopted a strategy of partially relying on outside models and its own smaller on-device systems for its rebuilt Siri, a move that now appears less like falling behind and more like prudent risk management.
Despite these shifts, Nvidia's data-center revenue still saw a 75% increase to $62.3 billion in its latest reported quarter, indicating sustained demand for AI infrastructure. Apple is scheduled to release its fiscal third-quarter results on July 30, which could serve as a final major catalyst influencing the market capitalization standings before the July 31 resolution.