Key facts
- US users are the largest political bettors on Polymarket by volume and wallet count, according to Allium research.
- Polymarket's attempts to restrict US access have not fully succeeded, with US participation occurring offshore.
- US users show a higher interest in foreign conflict-related markets compared to other users on the platform.
- A previous study by Harry Crane estimated that 30% of Polymarket's trading volume originates from the US.
- Polymarket was previously fined $1.4 million by the CFTC in 2022 for allowing US users on its global platform.
Despite efforts to block access, users in the United States constitute the largest group of political bettors on the global Polymarket platform, according to new research from blockchain analytics firm Allium. The report indicates that US participants are bypassing geoblocks and engaging with the prediction market offshore, contributing significantly to its volume.
Allium's findings suggest that Polymarket's attempts to restrict US citizens from its global platform, following a $1.4 million settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2022, have not been entirely effective. The research firm estimated that US-based users represent the biggest political market globally by contracts traded and wallet count. This offshore participation is occurring despite Polymarket blocking US-based IP addresses and VPNs.
Furthermore, US users on Polymarket exhibit a distinct interest in foreign conflict-related markets, with five of the top twelve markets by notional volume pertaining to the Iran war. This contrasts with a lesser interest in election-related markets, which are permitted on regulated platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket US.
These figures align with previous research, including a June study by Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane, who estimated that 30% of Polymarket's trading volume originates from the US. Crane's analysis suggested that between $10.6 billion and $26.7 billion flowed through Polymarket from US users between May 2025 and April 2026.
Polymarket is facing increasing legal and political scrutiny in the rapidly expanding predictions market sector. The platform is completely blocked in over 34 countries, with Spain being the latest to implement restrictions as authorities investigate licensing compliance. Additionally, four other countries are restricted to 'close only' mode, preventing new trades.