Key facts
- Prediction markets reached a record $113.8 billion in notional volume in Q2 2026.
- Spot trading volume on top 10 centralized exchanges dropped 27.9% to $1.95 trillion in Q2.
- Perpetual futures volume on CEXs decreased by 10% to $12.7 trillion.
- The stablecoin market cap declined 1.6% to $305.1 billion.
- Sports and politics were major drivers for prediction markets, with Polymarket's World Cup market alone attracting over $3.3 billion.
- Kalshi led prediction markets with a 58.9% market share in Q2.
Cryptocurrency markets faced broad declines in the second quarter of 2026, with significant drops in spot trading volume, derivatives activity, and stablecoin market capitalization. However, prediction markets bucked this trend, achieving a record notional volume of $113.8 billion for the quarter, according to CoinGecko's latest report.
Spot trading volume across the top 10 centralized exchanges (CEXs) fell by 27.9% from the previous quarter to $1.95 trillion. Similarly, CEX perpetual futures volume decreased by 10% to $12.7 trillion, and the stablecoin market saw a 1.6% slip to $305.1 billion. In contrast, prediction markets experienced their strongest quarter on record.
The growth in prediction markets was largely driven by events in sports and politics. Polymarket's market for the World Cup winner alone generated over $3.3 billion in trading volume, and contracts related to the 2028 US presidential election were among the platform's largest offerings.
Despite the overall bear market, Binance strengthened its position, holding a 38.7% market share among CEXs. Conversely, MEXC experienced a substantial decline, with its trading volume more than halving. Decentralized exchange (DEX) activity also weakened, with the top 10 spot DEXs processing $408.9 billion, down from $556.4 billion in Q1. Uniswap maintained its lead as the top DEX, despite a 21.4% drop in its volume.
The broader crypto market capitalization fell 12.6% to $2.1 trillion during the quarter. April also marked a record month for hacks in decentralized finance (DeFi), underscoring persistent security concerns.
Prediction market activity peaked in June, coinciding with the FIFA World Cup, reaching an all-time monthly high of $50.7 billion in notional volume, a 91.9% increase from the average of the preceding five months. Kalshi led the prediction market space with a 58.9% market share, while Polymarket's share decreased to 30.2%. Rothera Markets, backed by Robinhood, advanced to fourth place.
This expansion has attracted regulatory scrutiny. In the US, debates continue regarding whether prediction markets should be classified as financial markets or gambling platforms, leading to ongoing lawsuits. Other jurisdictions have also implemented restrictions on prediction markets, citing concerns over gambling regulations, market integrity, and potential insider trading.