Key facts
- Bitcoin prices are tracking U.S. equity futures higher.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $390 million in net outflows last week.
- Solana ETFs saw their strongest weekly inflows since mid-May.
- The probability of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 is now estimated at around 10%.
- Bitcoin's open interest has decreased, while XRP futures hold steady at 10-month highs.
Bitcoin prices showed a slight recovery above $63,000 on Monday, mirroring gains in U.S. equity futures, but persistent outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are keeping investor sentiment cautious. Last week saw net outflows totaling $390 million from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, marking the largest weekly withdrawal in six weeks and the first three-day outflow streak since late July.
In contrast, Solana ETFs bucked the trend, experiencing their strongest weekly inflows since mid-May. Ether ETF flows remained limited. The broader market sentiment, as indicated by CoinMarketCap's Fear and Greed index, remains in "fear" territory at 38/100, though the Altcoin Season Index shows some recovery.
On the regulatory front, Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, significantly reduced his odds of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 to approximately 10%, down from 75% in May. Prediction markets now place the probability around 17%, with a cloture vote expected on September 15, though further delays are anticipated.
Derivatives markets show a balanced taker ratio, but thin liquidity in Bitcoin's open interest, which is nearly double its 24-hour trading volume, raises concerns about potential wild price swings from liquidation events. Bitcoin's open interest has pulled back, while XRP futures remain at 10-month highs. The Canton Network's CC token is showing bearish buildup, with open interest rising alongside price drops, supported by negative funding rates and cumulative volume delta. Zcash (ZEC), however, shows bullish activity with a positive CVD and funding rate.
Implied volatility for Bitcoin and Ether remains near year-to-date lows, mirroring a similar trend in the VIX. Near-term options positioning shows a lean towards calls for Bitcoin and Ether. Trading volume rankings are mixed, with both calls and puts for BTC and ETH among the most traded instruments.
Among individual tokens, Pump.fun was a standout performer, rising 7.80% with a 55% increase in daily trading volume. Zcash (ZEC) gained 4.70%, continuing a positive trend for privacy coins. MORPHO advanced 5%, leading DeFi names higher, while HYPE saw a modest gain. FET was among the weaker altcoins, giving back some recent gains as AI-adjacent tokens lose momentum.