Key facts
- Approximately 10.83 million BTC are currently held at a loss.
- 9.22 million BTC are currently held at a profit.
- This is the first time loss-making supply has exceeded profitable supply since the current cycle began.
- The crossover historically signals periods of peak financial stress and capitulation.
- Long-term holder accumulation has been observed alongside the decline in profitability.
The total supply of Bitcoin held at a loss has now surpassed the supply in profit for the first time since the current market cycle began, according to data from Glassnode. Approximately 10.83 million BTC are currently held by investors who paid more for their holdings than the current market price, while 9.22 million BTC remain in profit.
This development reflects the significant correction Bitcoin has experienced from its all-time high of $109,000 in January. Historically, such crossovers in profitability have occurred near periods of peak financial stress and capitulation among newer investors. These moments have also often marked a transition of coins from less committed holders to those with higher conviction, who are willing to endure losses.
Concurrently, data indicates a trend of long-term holder accumulation and rising balances across various wallet cohorts, despite the overall deterioration in profitability. Bitcoin was trading at $61,361 on Thursday, marking a 0.7% increase for the day and a 2.5% gain for the week, though still approximately 44% below its January peak.
Other major cryptocurrencies also saw gains, with Ether rising 4.2% to $1,702 and Solana leading the pack with an 18.6% weekly increase to $80.44, accompanied by trading volumes exceeding $3.6 billion. The significance of this supply crossover as a market bottom remains contingent on subsequent market behavior, with past instances in 2018-19 and 2022 preceding extended basing periods before sustained recoveries.