Key facts
- Oil prices are climbing, with Brent crude nearing $90 a barrel.
- Hopes for a U.S.-Iran deal are diminishing.
- Concerns over Middle East supply disruptions and attacks on shipping are intensifying.
- Global fuel prices show a two-speed recovery, with diesel elevated and gasoline stabilized.
- Russia's budget deficit has widened due to increased military spending and oil export disruptions.
- China's independent refiners plan to increase Iranian oil imports in August.
- China's domestic oil stockpiles have fallen to an eight-month low.
- U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose by 9.072 million barrels in the week ending August 7.
- Iran plans to restore 95 million cubic meters of natural gas production by the end of September.
Oil prices are on the rise, with Brent crude approaching $90 a barrel, as doubts grow over a potential U.S.-Iran deal and attacks on shipping intensify concerns about Middle East supply disruptions. The fading prospects for a U.S.-Iran agreement could lead to the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, impacting global oil supply and potentially leading to price spikes due to dangerously low reserves. Global fuel prices are exhibiting a two-speed recovery, according to International Energy Agency data. Diesel prices remain elevated due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions stemming from the conflict involving Iran and Russia, while gasoline prices have stabilized. Russia's budget deficit is widening significantly, driven by increased military spending and disruptions to its oil exports, even as oil prices surge due to geopolitical factors. The Russian government has abandoned planned spending cuts, redirecting additional revenue towards its war efforts. In contrast to broader market trends, China's independent refiners are poised to increase their purchases of Iranian crude oil in August. This decision is prompted by domestic stockpiles falling to an eight-month low, following a period of reduced imports and depleted reserves that had previously helped to cap global oil prices. Adding to the complex energy landscape, U.S. crude oil inventories experienced a surprise build of 9.072 million barrels in the week ending August 7, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute. This build defied analyst expectations of a 500,000-barrel draw and was attributed to higher crude imports and ongoing withdrawals from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. On the natural gas front, Iran plans to restore 95 million cubic meters of natural gas production by the end of September. This restoration follows repairs to energy infrastructure that had been targeted by recent strikes, according to Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad.