Key facts
- EU cereal production is forecast to contract by 5.6% in 2026/27.
- EU cereal production is forecast to fall to 273.7 million tonnes in 2026/27.
- High yields in the previous season are a factor in the forecast.
- Ongoing weather challenges are contributing to the forecast decline.
- Rising input costs are contributing to the forecast decline.
- Production is expected to remain close to the five-year average.
- The forecast applies to the European Union.
The European Union's cereal production is forecast to experience a contraction of 5.6% during the 2026/27 season, with output expected to fall to 273.7 million tonnes. This projected decrease is largely influenced by the exceptionally high yields recorded in the previous season, which set a high benchmark. Additionally, ongoing challenges stemming from adverse weather patterns and persistently rising input costs are contributing factors to the anticipated decline.
Despite the expected drop in production, the overall output for the 2026/27 season is still anticipated to remain close to the five-year average for the European Union. This suggests a degree of resilience in the sector, even amidst challenging environmental and economic conditions. The confluence of factors, including weather variability and the cost of agricultural inputs, presents a complex outlook for EU cereal farmers.
The agricultural sector in the EU is sensitive to both climatic conditions and economic factors such as the cost of fertilizers, energy, and labor. Fluctuations in these areas can significantly impact crop yields and profitability. The current forecast indicates a return to more typical production levels after a potentially exceptional prior season, while also highlighting the ongoing pressures from input costs and weather variability.