Key facts
- An early seasonal surge in U.S. container import volume is ending.
- Shippers accelerated imports to avoid higher fuel surcharges and new tariffs.
- The Global Port Tracker report forecasts import volume to decline for the rest of the year after August.
- Retailers are expected to be well-stocked for the holiday season.
- Ocean transport prices are predicted to remain elevated due to sustained fuel and canal surcharges.
An early seasonal surge in U.S. container import volume, driven by shippers attempting to avoid higher fuel surcharges and new tariffs, is coming to an end. The Global Port Tracker report, released by the National Retail Federation and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates, anticipates that import volumes at major U.S. container ports will remain high through August before declining for the remainder of the year.
Freight forwarders concur with the report's assessment. Ted Chen, director of ocean freight at Dimerco Express Group, stated that the "front-loading wave has passed its peak." Temporary 10% global tariffs expired on July 23, followed by a new round of 10% to 12.5% tariffs that cover 60 economies and affect 99% of U.S. imports, taking effect the next day.
According to the report, May appears to have been this year's busiest month for container shipping. Retailers, responsible for approximately half of U.S. container imports, have become adept at managing supply-chain disruptions, according to NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold. Gold added that "Retailers will be well stocked for the coming holiday season."
The Global Port Tracker report forecasts August volume to decrease by 4.2% from the previous year, reaching 2.2 million 20-foot-equivalent units for seaports including Los Angeles/Long Beach, New York/New Jersey, and Houston. It projects a steady decline in imports each month for most of the rest of the year, though volumes are expected to remain above 2025 levels.
Despite the anticipated drop in demand, Chen predicted that ocean transport prices will remain elevated, stating, "The cost floor isn't moving: fuel and canal surcharges won't fall with demand."