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UK manufacturing output grows despite Iran war, but future concerns linger

Created at 1 Jul · 10:15 AM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

UK manufacturing output expanded at its fastest pace in 21 months in June, driven by stockpiling amid the Iran war. However, concerns are rising about fading momentum and geopolitical uncertainty impacting future growth.

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Key Numbers

21 monthsfastest output growth pace
52.5manufacturing PMI score in June
53.1manufacturing PMI score in May
6 monthsconsecutive export growth
4 yearslowest business confidence level

Who's Involved

S&P Global
researchers who conducted the business survey
Rob Dobson
director at S&P Global
Andy Burnham
highly likely next Prime Minister focused on reindustrialisation
Stephen Phipson
Make UK boss representing manufacturers
Cara Haffey
industrials chief at PwC UK
UK manufacturing output grows despite Iran war, but future concerns linger

↳ Why This Matters

The manufacturing sector's performance is a key indicator of economic health. While current output growth is strong due to geopolitical stockpiling, underlying concerns about future demand, high costs, and policy uncertainty suggest potential headwinds for the UK economy.

Key facts

  • UK manufacturing output grew at its fastest pace in 21 months in June.
  • Firms stockpiled goods in anticipation of further trade turmoil related to the Iran war.
  • The manufacturing PMI score was 52.5 in June, down from 53.1 in May.
  • New orders increased at a slower pace, suggesting a potential fade in momentum.
  • Exports continued to grow for the sixth consecutive month.
  • Employment in the manufacturing sector also saw an increase.

The UK manufacturing sector demonstrated resilience in June, with output growing at the fastest pace in 21 months, according to a survey by S&P Global. This growth was largely attributed to firms stockpiling goods in anticipation of further trade disruptions stemming from the Iran war.

The overall Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing stood at 52.5 in June, a slight decrease from May's four-year high of 53.1. While production levels expanded, this was despite new orders increasing at a slower rate, indicating a potential softening of demand.

Despite global tensions, exports continued to rise for the sixth consecutive month, and employment within the sector also saw an increase. However, concerns are mounting about the sustainability of this growth, with analysts warning that the boost from stockpiling is likely to fade in the latter half of the year.

Rob Dobson, director at S&P Global, expressed concern that a slowdown in stockpiling could impact manufacturers, and noted that optimism for the year ahead remains subdued due to geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding government policy. Business owners are looking to the next Prime Minister, widely expected to be Andy Burnham, to prioritize the "reindustrialisation" of the UK.

Industry leaders like Stephen Phipson of Make UK are urging the next government to focus on reducing industrial energy prices, citing that high costs are driving manufacturers to consider or already move production overseas. Cara Haffey of PwC UK also highlighted the need for a revised industrial strategy and energy policy.

Frequently asked questions

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is a survey-based economic indicator. A score above 50 indicates expansion in the sector, while a score below 50 suggests contraction.

Manufacturers are stockpiling goods to prepare for potential further trade disruptions and supply chain issues arising from the ongoing Iran war and related geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Key concerns include the potential slowdown in stockpiling, high operating costs, geopolitical uncertainty, and a lack of clarity on future government policy regarding industrial strategy and energy prices.

What Happens Next

01Monitor future PMI data for signs of slowing growth.
02Observe government policy changes regarding industrial strategy and energy prices.
03Track manufacturer decisions on moving production overseas.

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How It Developed

Manufacturing output grew at the fastest pace in 21 months in June.
Firms rushed to stockpile goods ahead of expected trade turmoil.
The overall purchasing managers' index (PMI) score was 52.5 in June.
New orders increased at a slower pace.
Exports increased for the sixth month in a row.
Employment also increased in the manufacturing sector.
Concerns exist about the impact of slowing stockpiling and geopolitical tensions.
Business confidence is at its lowest level in four years.

Sources

T1
Stockpiling helps manufacturing sector power through Iran war blowsCity AM

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