Key facts
- Europe's droughts are increasingly driven by extreme heat, not just a lack of rain.
- Research by World Weather Attribution found record-breaking summer heat supercharges drought by evaporating soil moisture.
- Agricultural soil droughts in Western Europe are five times more likely due to climate change.
- Heatwaves capable of driving intense evaporative conditions are 80 times more likely in Western Europe.
- Crop failures and low river levels threaten to increase prices for food and energy, disproportionately affecting vulnerable households.
Scorching summer heat, rather than a simple lack of rain, is increasingly the primary driver of droughts across Europe, according to new research. A study by World Weather Attribution (WWA) found that extreme heat is intensifying droughts by evaporating soil moisture at an accelerated rate, turning what would have been manageable dry spells into severe crises.
Scientists from 12 European countries analyzed rainfall trends, soil moisture, and atmospheric 'thirst' (potential evapotranspiration) to assess the role of climate change. They concluded that while long-term rainfall patterns are mixed, extreme heat is the key factor exacerbating dry conditions. In Western Europe, heatwaves that promote intense evaporation are now approximately 80 times more likely than in a world without climate change, while in Eastern Europe, they are about 40 times more likely.
The consequences are far-reaching, impacting agriculture, shipping, and energy production. France is anticipating its worst maize harvest in half a century, and Romania has lost over a million hectares of crops. Low river levels are disrupting vital shipping lanes and straining energy generation capacity. These agricultural failures and water shortages threaten to increase the cost of essential goods like food and energy, with the most severe impact falling on low-income households.
Researchers warn that if global emissions continue to rise, current drought conditions, occurring at 1.4°C of warming, could double in likelihood at 2.8°C, making "scorching, dry summers" a regular occurrence in Europe. Experts emphasize the urgent need for faster transitions to renewable energy and increased investment in resilience measures to mitigate the escalating impacts of climate-driven droughts.