Key facts
- Middle East crude oil production rebounded to 14.6-15 million bpd.
- Rystad Energy predicts a full recovery to pre-war levels by year-end.
- Shut-in production is expected to fall below 2 million barrels daily by September.
- Iran's output is forecast to reach 3.3 million bpd by year-end.
- Saudi Arabia aims for a record 4.5 mbpd through Yanbu this month.
Middle East crude oil production has rebounded to between 14.6 million and 15 million barrels per day earlier this month, driven by progress in peace negotiations and a reduction in shut-in output. Rystad Energy predicts a full recovery to pre-war levels by the end of the year, with shut-in production expected to fall below 2 million barrels daily by September, a significant decrease from the current 9.6 million barrels.
Iran is leading the recovery, with its output seen rising substantially from 2.4 million barrels daily to 3.3 million barrels daily by year-end, contingent on the extension of a U.S. sanction waiver. Kuwait has lifted all force majeure notices, and Saudi Arabia is on track for a record 4.5 million barrels per day through Yanbu this month. The consultancy emphasized that the crucial factor for sustained recovery remains the Strait of Hormuz and uninterrupted navigation.
Two million barrels a day have come back online in the past three weeks, spread across the region. The overall supply picture is clearly improving, according to Rystad Energy MENA research director Aditya Saraswat.