Key facts
- Kazakhstan's wheat production is forecast to decrease in the 2025-26 marketing year.
- Farmers are planting more oilseeds, such as sunflowers and rapeseed, due to higher profitability.
- Favorable weather conditions during the growing and harvest seasons partially offset reduced wheat plantings.
- Wheat exports are projected to be around 10 million tonnes.
- The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecasts 18 million tonnes of wheat production for 2025-26.
Kazakhstan's wheat production for the 2025-26 marketing year is anticipated to decrease from the previous year's record, primarily due to farmers shifting to more profitable oilseed crops like sunflowers and rapeseed. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecasts production at 18 million tonnes, a slight reduction from the 2024-25 season. This figure is lower than the Kazakhstan Bureau of National Statistics' projection, which FAS analysts consider overstated.
Despite the anticipated drop in overall production, favorable weather conditions during the growing and harvesting periods have led to improved yields, partially mitigating the impact of reduced wheat plantings. Consequently, projected wheat exports have been revised upward to 10 million tonnes. Exporters are also focused on diversifying their markets and continuing to leverage government transportation subsidies.