Key facts
- India's refined petroleum product exports are projected to reach 1.55 million barrels per day in July.
- This figure is nearly double the 866,000 bpd exported in May.
- The increase is attributed to a rally in refining margins following the escalation of the Middle East conflict.
- July's export volume is expected to be the second-highest on record since 2017.
- Middle East crude supply remains at high risk of delay, potentially impacting Asian refiners' processing plans.
India is poised to export its largest volume of refined petroleum products in months, with an estimated 1.55 million barrels per day expected in July. This surge is driven by significantly higher refining margins, fueled by the re-escalation of conflict in the Middle East. These July volumes are nearly double the 866,000 bpd shipped in May, a period marked by lower exports due to concerns over crude supplies from the region. The rally in refining margins has incentivized Indian refiners to ramp up their export operations, with the projected July figures representing the second-highest level recorded in data dating back to 2017. While these increased exports may alleviate some pressure on Asian fuel markets, the ongoing risks to Middle East crude supply could still disrupt plans for Asian refiners. Many refiners had anticipated increased crude deliveries in August, but the current geopolitical climate has upended loading and delivery schedules, potentially limiting their processing capacity. Refineries in the U.S. and Europe are already operating at near-full capacity, leaving Asian refiners facing potential constraints.