Key facts
- European natural gas prices fell 8.6% on Monday.
- The drop occurred as the U.S. paused strikes on Iran and Tehran signaled a halt to retaliatory attacks.
- Brent Crude oil prices fell to $90 per barrel.
- The August 2026 TTF Natural Gas Futures contract declined to $66.29 per MWh.
- Europe's gas storage levels are significantly below average for this time of year.
European natural gas prices experienced a significant drop of 8.6% at the opening in Amsterdam on Monday. This decline is attributed to the easing of tensions between the United States and Iran, following the U.S. pausing strikes and Iran signaling a halt to retaliatory attacks. The market is hopeful for a diplomatic resolution that could reopen key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz and facilitate the flow of Qatari LNG.
The August 2026 contract for Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures fell to $66.29 (58.12 euros) per megawatt-hour, down from over $73 (64 euros) per MWh reached last week. This previous surge was driven by heightened threats to energy flows in the Middle East, including the Houthi blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and concerns around the Strait of Hormuz.
While the de-escalation is positive news for Europe, concerns remain about Qatari LNG recovery. Europe is currently facing a race against time to procure LNG for the upcoming winter, as its gas storage levels are significantly below the five-year average and heading for the second-lowest level in 15 years for this time of year. The competition with Asia for LNG supply is also intensifying.