Key facts
- NOAA predicts an 81% chance of a "very strong" El Nino by fall.
- This El Nino is expected to be among the most intense since 1950.
- The event is amplified by human-caused global warming.
- The southern U.S. is likely to experience a rainier winter.
- The Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be dampened.
- 2027 is predicted to break global temperature records due to accumulated heat.
An intensifying El Nino is poised to become historically strong, with an 81% probability of reaching its "very strong" category by fall, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This natural warming of the equatorial Pacific, which significantly alters global weather patterns, is already moderate and showing no signs of slowing its strengthening. Ocean temperatures in key Pacific regions are at or near record highs for this time of year, exacerbated by human-caused climate change.
Meteorologists anticipate the most significant impacts, including droughts, downpours, and heat waves, will be most pronounced during the fall and winter months. This El Nino is expected to rival the strength of the 1997-1998 event, with some forecasters predicting it could be even stronger. Unlike past super El Ninos, this one occurs on top of considerable background warming from the burning of fossil fuels, leading scientists to suggest that its impacts may differ from historical events.
A very strong El Nino increases the likelihood of extreme weather conditions, such as a rainier winter for most of the southern U.S. and warmer conditions for the northern United States and Canada. It typically dampens the Atlantic hurricane season, as indicated by Colorado State University's dramatically reduced hurricane forecast. Globally, drier conditions are expected in Indonesia, while the eastern Pacific may experience warmer and wetter weather. El Nino acts as a global climate "thermostat" by releasing accumulated heat from the subsurface Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere, contributing to planet-wide warming. Many climate scientists predict that the accumulated heat could lead to new global temperature records in the coming years, potentially breaking the 2024 record.