Key facts
- Dutch marine ticket prices hit a four-month high.
- Port of Rotterdam data suggests a potential shortfall in biofuel supply for the 2026 mandate.
- Renewable fuel tickets (ZRE-Gs) are used to demonstrate compliance with GHG emission reduction targets.
- Non-compliance carries administrative fines of up to 10% of the previous year's turnover.
- B100 Advanced Fame prices decreased, while marine gasoil remained higher.
Dutch marine ticket prices have surged to a four-month high as buyers scramble to secure compliance credits amid concerns of a biofuel supply shortfall for the Netherlands' shipping renewable energy mandate. Regulations require marine fuel suppliers to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 2.9% in 2026, increasing to 8.2% by 2030. Compliance is typically met by surrendering renewable fuel tickets, known as ZRE-Gs, generated from the supply of renewable fuels.
Data from the Port of Rotterdam indicates that despite a significant year-on-year increase, marine biodiesel sales may not be sufficient to generate enough ZRE-Gs for all suppliers to meet their 2026 obligations. This potential deficit challenges the strategy of some suppliers who planned to purchase tickets rather than blend physical biofuels. ZRE-Gs reached 13.40c/kgCO2e on Thursday, a notable increase from approximately 10.50c/kgCO2e throughout July.
The exact extent of any shortage is difficult to ascertain due to data limitations, including reliance on a single port and the inclusion of blended fuels. However, even conservative estimates suggest a deficit in biofuel usage at Rotterdam, a major bio-bunker hub. Non-compliance with emission reduction mandates can lead to substantial administrative fines, potentially up to 10% of the previous year's turnover.
Questions also arise about covering shortfalls with credits from other transport sectors. While some flexibility exists, road transport tickets have traded at four to five times the price of marine ZRE-Gs this year, making this a less likely solution. Furthermore, road mandates are significantly higher, potentially limiting surplus availability.
The rise in ZRE prices has coincided with a fall in B100 Advanced fatty acid methyl ester (Fame) prices in the Netherlands, which dropped by $63.50/t to $1,286.50/t on July 30. Marine gasoil (MGO) was assessed higher at $1,288.50/t on the same day. This marks the first time B100 Advanced Fame has been priced below MGO since assessments began in January.
Rising net B100 costs had already been supporting ZRE values prior to the Rotterdam data release. The cost of B100 has been higher than conventional marine fuels throughout 2026. While it can offer discounts to shipowners when EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime savings are considered, this advantage has narrowed recently as FuelEU surplus values have declined. Argus estimates these surplus prices fell to €120/t in July from €215/t at the start of the year, reducing potential savings for shipowners using B100 in pooling schemes.