Key facts
- Crop prices have reached a three-year high, according to the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index.
- Escalating conflicts in the Black Sea and Middle East, coupled with heat waves, are threatening global grain trade.
- Food prices rose 5% in the two months after the Middle East conflict began in February 2026.
- Oils and meals prices saw a 10% increase, driven by higher crude oil prices and biofuel mandates.
- Grain prices increased by 3%, influenced by drought concerns and logistical issues.
- Food security risks are heightened, particularly in import-dependent regions like the Middle East and North Africa.
Global crop prices have surged to a three-year high, driven by a confluence of factors including extreme heat waves and escalating conflicts in the Black Sea and Middle East. The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index, which monitors ten key crop products, reached its highest point since July 2023, following a sustained seven-week advance.
These price increases are reigniting concerns about food inflation. The current surge follows earlier peaks in May, which were attributed to worries over strained fertilizer and fuel supplies stemming from the Strait of Hormuz. While those risks temporarily subsided, new geopolitical and weather-related threats have re-emerged, pushing crop prices upward once again.
The Middle East conflict, which erupted in late February 2026, has led to a near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This disruption contributed to a 5% rise in global food prices in the two months following the conflict's onset, with oils and meals experiencing a significant 10% surge due to higher crude oil prices and increased biofuel mandates. Grain prices saw a more modest increase of 3%, influenced by drought concerns, expectations of reduced spring planting due to higher fertilizer costs, and logistical disruptions.
While the current food price response is more contained than during the initial phase of the Russia-Ukraine war in early 2022, the risks to food security are substantial. The conflict has exacerbated existing pressures, including rising energy and fertilizer costs, and is compounded by a strong El Niño weather pattern that increases the likelihood of harvest losses. Agricultural economist Wolfram Schlenker highlights the danger of compound risks—war-driven input costs, climate shocks, and dwindling grain reserves—which could lead to a series of localized food crises, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations.
In regions like the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAAP), food inflation has risen sharply, particularly in import-dependent Gulf economies. The Islamic Republic of Iran, already facing extreme food inflation, is at particular risk. The UN World Food Programme estimates that if acute supply disruptions persist and oil prices remain elevated, an additional 45 million people could face acute hunger.