Key facts
- Brazil's corn production for the 2025-26 marketing year is forecast to decline by 2% to 133 million tonnes.
- Lower yields are anticipated due to the influence of the La Niña weather phenomenon.
- Despite yield concerns, corn exports are projected to increase by 5% to 43 million tonnes.
- Domestic corn consumption is expected to rise by 2%, driven by demand from the ethanol and feed industries.
- Rice production is forecast to decrease by 9% due to high production costs and interest rates.
Brazil's corn production for the 2025-26 marketing year is anticipated to see a slight decline of 2%, reaching an estimated 133 million tonnes, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture. This decrease is attributed to anticipated lower yields, influenced by the La Niña weather phenomenon, which is expected to bring heavier rainfall to central-west Brazil and drier conditions to the south.
Despite potential yield challenges, the total planted area for Brazil's three corn cultivation seasons is projected to increase slightly to 22.6 million hectares. High corn prices are encouraging an expansion in the second-season corn crop, which constitutes the majority of the country's production. The FAS maintained its forecast for corn exports at 43 million tonnes, a 5% increase from the previous year, supported by higher carryover stocks from a strong 2024-25 harvest.
Domestic corn consumption is also expected to grow by 2% to 96.5 million tonnes, primarily driven by increased demand from the corn ethanol and animal feed industries. Iran and Egypt were identified as the leading destinations for Brazilian corn exports during the January-November 2025 period.
In other agricultural sectors, rice production for 2025-26 is forecast to decrease by 9% to 11.2 million tonnes due to high production costs and rising interest rates impacting farmers. Wheat production is expected to remain relatively stable, with an anticipated increase in yield offsetting a reduction in planted area.