Key facts
- Asian airlines' advantage on European routes is diminishing as Gulf carriers resume flights and lower prices.
- Gulf airlines' flights are back to approximately 90% of normal levels after initial disruptions.
- Passenger traffic gains for Asian carriers on Europe routes have narrowed significantly.
- Load factors for some Asian airlines on European routes have normalized after initial surges.
- Traveler confidence in flying through the Middle East is increasing, leading some to return to Gulf carriers.
Asian airlines that saw a surge in passengers and fares on European routes following the Iran conflict are now experiencing a decline in these advantages as Gulf carriers, such as Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad Airways, have resumed nearly all their flights.
Before the conflict, Gulf carriers accounted for nearly one-third of passengers traveling from Asia to Europe and over half from Australia and New Zealand to Europe. Their operations were significantly impacted by airport closures due to drone and missile attacks starting February 28. However, by mid-June, their flights had recovered to approximately 90% of normal levels.
Data from the International Air Transport Association shows that Middle Eastern carriers improved their passenger numbers from a nearly 60% year-on-year drop between March and May to a 28% decline. Similarly, the year-on-year gain in non-stop traffic from Asia to Europe narrowed from nearly 30% in March to 15% by May.
The lifting of Australia's 'do not travel' warning for Gulf hubs in June led to a 36% increase in bookings for Emirates, Qatar, and Etihad. Some travelers who had booked backup flights on Asian airlines are now feeling more secure flying through the Middle East, especially as Asian flights became full and cheaper fares disappeared.
Load factors for Asian airlines on European routes have shown a trend of normalization. Korean Air noted a softening in transfer traffic demand as Gulf carriers resumed operations. ANA Holdings reported a slip in its European flight load factor from 93.1% in March to 86.9% in April, though this was still an increase year-on-year. Cathay Pacific's network load factor saw a smaller year-on-year gain in May compared to March. Singapore Airlines' load factor gains on European routes also narrowed significantly from March to May.
Industry analysts suggest this rebalancing is gradual rather than sudden. While some travelers remain hesitant about booking with Middle Eastern carriers for immediate travel, there is openness to them for bookings next year.