Key facts
- Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo have reduced their 2026 smartphone shipment targets.
- Reductions range from nearly 15% for Vivo to over 20% for Xiaomi and Oppo.
- Transsion has cut its target to below 70 million units.
- The primary drivers for these cuts are rising memory prices and component shortages.
- The adjustments mainly impact mid- to low-end models and sales in overseas markets.
Major Chinese smartphone manufacturers, including Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo, and Transsion, have revised their full-year 2026 shipment forecasts downward, with some cuts reaching up to 30%. This recalibration is driven by escalating memory prices and persistent component shortages across the supply chain, impacting the production and profitability of mid- to low-end models and overseas markets.
Xiaomi and Oppo have each reduced their projections by over 20%, while Vivo has seen a nearly 15% cut. Transsion's forecast has been lowered to below 70 million units. These adjustments reflect broader industry pressures, including a significant surge in DRAM and NAND flash memory prices that is squeezing profit margins.
However, some sources suggest that manufacturers often inflate their initial order volumes to secure resources from suppliers, and memory makers like Samsung and SK Hynix have not yet received official notifications of actual shipment reductions. Huawei, in contrast, appears to be better insulated from these cost pressures due to its reliance on localized supply chains with Chinese memory vendors.
TrendForce has consequently lowered its forecast for total global smartphone production in 2026, increasing the expected year-on-year decline from 2% to 7%. Future revisions will depend on memory price movements, brand pricing strategies, and consumer acceptance of higher handset costs.