Key facts
- Uzbekistan's economy grew 8.5% in the first half of 2026.
- Investment reached €24.6 billion and exports €12.7 billion in the first half of 2026.
- Services sector grew by 16.9%, construction by 13.8%, industry by 8%, and agriculture by 4.7%.
- Moody's upgraded Uzbekistan's sovereign credit rating to Ba2.
- Fitch revised its outlook on Uzbekistan's BB rating to positive.
Uzbekistan's economy experienced a significant growth of 8.5% in the first half of 2026, a performance attributed to a structural economic shift initiated in 2017. Official figures presented at a presidential review meeting chaired by President Shavkat Mirziyoyev revealed that investment reached approximately €24.6 billion and exports stood at around €12.7 billion during this period. The services sector saw the most substantial expansion, growing by 16.9%, followed by construction at 13.8%, industry at 8%, and agriculture at 4.7%.
These positive economic indicators have been recognized by international credit rating agencies. Moody's upgraded Uzbekistan's sovereign credit rating from Ba3 to Ba2 in June, while Fitch maintained its BB rating but shifted the outlook from stable to positive. These upgrades signal growing confidence among international investors in the reforms implemented since 2017, which include foreign-exchange liberalization, trade opening, privatization, and monetary reform.
President Mirziyoyev emphasized the necessity of achieving 9% to 10% economic growth to improve living standards for the nation's 40 million people. He urged regional and sector leaders to maximize value from existing investment, industrial, and export projects. The Ministry of Economy and Finance highlighted that the structural shift has significantly altered the economy's composition, with agriculture's share of gross value added decreasing from 27.3% in 2017 to 17.3% in 2025, while industry's share rose from approximately 22% to nearly 27%, and services increased from 43.7% to 48.6%.
Gross fixed capital formation reached €41.3 billion by the end of 2025, a substantial increase from earlier reform periods, and the investment-to-GDP ratio rose to about 32%. Exports also saw considerable growth, climbing from roughly €10.6 billion in 2017 to €29.9 billion in 2025. Koba Gvenetadze, the IMF Resident Representative in Uzbekistan, noted that reforms, including a new central bank law, have strengthened the credibility and independence of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, facilitating a shift towards inflation targeting and enhancing economic resilience.
The presidential review also focused on the conversion of investment agreements into actual output and exports, noting uneven implementation. Officials were instructed to address barriers in certification, working capital access, logistics, and market entry. Efforts are also underway to formalize employment through expanded vocational training and linking infrastructure programs to job creation, though progress is expected to be gradual.