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Euro zone factory output surges but demand remains weak

Created at 3 Aug · 7:06 AM5 sources↑ Market-relevant4 events
IN SHORT

Euro zone factory output grew at its fastest pace in nearly four-and-a-half years in July, driven by firms clearing backlogs rather than rising demand. The PMI rose to 51.9, but new orders saw only marginal growth.

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Key Numbers

51.9Euro zone Manufacturing PMI July
51.4Euro zone Manufacturing PMI June
52.9Euro zone manufacturing output index July
51.7Euro zone manufacturing output index June
50.2Spain Manufacturing PMI July
51.4Hungary Manufacturing PMI July
47.7Turkey Manufacturing PMI July
2.9%Euro zone inflation July
2.8%Euro zone inflation June

Who's Involved

S&P Global Market Intelligence
Provider of the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI survey
Chris Williamson
Chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence
European Central Bank
Central bank potentially responding to inflation risks
Euro zone factory output surges but demand remains weak

↳ Why This Matters

The data suggests that while Euro zone factories are experiencing a temporary boost in output, the underlying demand remains weak, posing risks to a sustained economic recovery. Persistent inflation and geopolitical factors continue to challenge manufacturers.

Key facts

  • Euro zone factory output surged at its fastest pace in nearly four-and-a-half years in July.
  • The headline S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9 in July, up from 51.4 in June.
  • Growth was largely driven by firms clearing order backlogs rather than rising demand.
  • New orders rose only marginally in July, well below the pace of output growth.
  • Export orders fell again in July.
  • Factory employment fell again in July.
  • Input cost inflation eased to a five-month low, and factory gate prices rose at their softest pace since March.

Euro zone factory output surged at its fastest pace in nearly four-and-a-half years in July, but growth was largely driven by firms clearing order backlogs rather than rising demand, indicating a fragile recovery. The headline S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9 in July from 51.4 in June, its highest reading since April. However, new orders saw only marginal growth, well below the pace of output, suggesting factories are relying on prior months' business. Export orders also declined. Factory employment fell again in July, extending a run of job cuts.

Conflict in the Middle East has disrupted supply chains and sent energy costs soaring, contributing to difficulties for manufacturers. Inflation in the common currency bloc rose to 2.9% in July from 2.8% in June. Input cost inflation eased to a five-month low, and factory gate prices rose at their softest pace since March, though supply chain pressures remained elevated.

Hungary's manufacturing PMI decreased to 51.4 in July from 51.6 in June, indicating slower expansion. Spain's manufacturing sector returned to marginal growth in July with its PMI rising to 50.2, despite falling output and new orders. Turkey's manufacturing sector contracted in July with its PMI at 47.7.

Frequently asked questions

A PMI reading above 50.0 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50.0 signifies contraction.

The current growth is primarily driven by manufacturers clearing backlogs of unfinished work, rather than an increase in new orders or demand.

Conflict in the Middle East has disrupted supply chains and sent energy costs soaring, creating difficulties for manufacturers.

Inflation in the Euro zone rose to 2.9% in July from 2.8% in June.

What Happens Next

01Monitor upcoming composite PMI data for a broader view of the Euro zone economy.
02Observe the European Central Bank's response to inflation and economic growth trends.

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Cadence

How It Developed

Turkey's manufacturing sector contracted in July with a PMI of 47.7.
Hungary's manufacturing PMI decreased to 51.4 in July from 51.6 in June.
Spain's manufacturing sector returned to marginal growth in July with a PMI of 50.2.
Euro zone factory output grew at its fastest pace in nearly four-and-a-half years in July.
The headline S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9 in July from 51.4 in June.
Euro zone factories are relying on old work rather than new business, with export orders falling.
Factory employment in the Eurozone fell again in July.
Input cost inflation eased to a five-month low in July, and factory gate prices rose at their softest pace since March.

Sources

T1
Turkish manufacturing contracts slightly in July, PMI showsReuters

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