Key facts
- Taiwan's 2026 GDP growth projection has been raised to 11.05% from 9.64%.
- Yuanta Securities Investment Consulting Co. upgraded its 2024 GDP growth forecast to 11.05%.
- AI-driven growth, strong exports, domestic investment, and private consumption are cited as key drivers.
- Exports are projected to increase by 25.49% and domestic investment by 8.38% for the year.
- Taiwan's economy has been in a "red" zone for six consecutive months, indicating overheating.
Taiwan's economy is projected to expand by 11.05% in 2026, an increase from the previous estimate of 9.64%, according to the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics. The second quarter saw a revised GDP expansion of 12.93% year-on-year.
Yuanta Securities Investment Consulting Co. has upgraded its forecast for Taiwan's GDP growth this year to 11.05% from 8.72%, citing resilient AI-driven growth momentum, strong exports, domestic investment, and private consumption. This forecast is the highest among domestic and foreign institutions and surpasses the central bank's and the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics' estimates.
Yuanta's projections indicate a significant increase in exports (25.49%), domestic investment (8.38%), and private consumption (4.99%) for the current year. The firm highlighted that Taiwan's technology hardware sector is central to the AI industry chain, driving high export levels. Despite a slump in the housing market, increased AI capital expenditure and inventory replenishment are expected to boost investment. Wealth effects from a strong stock market, stable employment, and wage growth are supporting domestic consumption.
However, Yuanta remains conservative about government consumption and investment for next year due to unapproved budget plans, expecting average growth of 2%. The firm also lifted its consumer price index (CPI) growth forecast to 1.95% for this year and 1.98% for next year, citing sticky services, dining, and rental costs, as well as the impact of Middle East conflicts on energy prices.