Key facts
- South Korean exports are projected to grow at their strongest annual pace in nearly 50 years in June.
- Semiconductor shipments are a primary driver, soaring 188.4% in the first 20 days of June.
- The share of semiconductors in total exports reached 41.2% in early June.
- Imports are expected to rise 26.3%, the sharpest increase since August 2022.
- A record monthly trade surplus of $32.58 billion is forecast.
- Consumer prices are expected to increase by 3.2% year-on-year.
South Korean exports are poised to record their strongest annual growth in nearly five decades in June, driven by a significant surge in semiconductor shipments amid a global boom in artificial intelligence investment. A Reuters poll of 13 economists indicated a median forecast of 61.0% year-on-year export growth for June, surpassing the 53.4% pace seen in May and marking the highest rate since October 1978. This export surge has been bolstered by chipmakers like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, as rising chip prices and increased usage in major language models continue to drive demand. Data from the Korea Customs Service showed exports jumped 60.4% in the first 20 days of June, with semiconductor shipments soaring 188.4% to account for 41.2% of total exports. Economists suggest that the ongoing chip export boom, coupled with falling oil prices, should also support exports of non-chip products. The survey also predicted imports to rise 26.3% and a record monthly trade surplus of $32.58 billion. Consumer prices are expected to increase by 3.2% year-on-year, the fastest pace since December 2023. South Korea is also planning three "mega-projects" to foster future growth, including a new semiconductor hub.