Key facts
- Germany's eastern states have experienced a 16% population decline since reunification.
- Saxony-Anhalt recorded the most dramatic decline at 26%.
- Low birth rates and a 'brain drain' are expected to further reduce populations in rural eastern areas.
- The national birth rate has reached its lowest point since 1946.
- Immigration has primarily benefited large cities and western Germany, not the depopulated east.
Germany's eastern regions are grappling with a severe demographic crisis, characterized by significant population decline and low birth rates, which is exposing deep-seated divides from the post-reunification era. Many towns, like Oschersleben in Saxony-Anhalt, have seen their populations plummet by over 20% since 1989 as businesses struggled and residents moved west for opportunities. This trend, known as 'Kitasterben' or 'daycare dying,' is a direct consequence of a depleted population and persistently low fertility rates, which have reached their lowest point since 1946.
While Germany's overall population has grown due to immigration, these newcomers have largely settled in major cities and western parts of the country, leaving rural eastern areas increasingly hollowed out. The aging population and shrinking workforce face the challenge of supporting a growing number of retirees, impacting essential services like healthcare and education. Sociologists note that the exodus from the East was particularly selective, with young, educated individuals, especially women, being more likely to leave, further compounding the issue.
Experts suggest that global crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, have exacerbated the declining birth rates. The fertility rate among women without German nationality is higher than that of German citizens, but both remain below the replacement level of 2.1. This demographic shift is also seen as a contributing factor to the rising support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in eastern states like Saxony-Anhalt, where it is classified as right-wing extremist by domestic intelligence and could potentially win power in upcoming elections.