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SpaceX-Tesla merger analysis: math behind $3.4T potential deal

Created at 31 May · 2:20 PM3 sources↑ Market-relevant3 events
IN SHORT

A potential SpaceX-Tesla merger could create a $3.4 trillion entity, with SpaceX valued at $1.75 trillion and Tesla at $1.65 trillion. However, the financial logic faces scrutiny, as SpaceX would issue new shares to absorb Tesla, whose earnings have significantly declined.

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Key Numbers

$3.4 trillionpotential combined valuation of SpaceX and Tesla
$1.75 trillionanticipated market cap of SpaceX
$1.65 trillionmarket cap of Tesla
three timessize of the largest merger ever completed
94%new shares SpaceX would issue to absorb Tesla
8 billiondoubled share base for SpaceX
$15 billionTesla's trailing GAAP earnings in 2023
$3.9 billionTesla's current trailing GAAP earnings
$2.3 billionTesla's core operating earnings

Who's Involved

Elon Musk
CEO of SpaceX and Tesla, potentially orchestrating a merger
SpaceX
Aerospace company with a high valuation, considered for merger currency
Tesla
Electric vehicle company with declining earnings, potentially to be acquired
Shawn Tully
Fortune analyst who authored the analysis on the merger math

↳ Why This Matters

Elon Musk is reportedly considering a merger between SpaceX and Tesla, a move that would create an unprecedentedly large entity. The analysis delves into the financial implications, questioning whether the deal's structure, which involves SpaceX issuing a significant number of new shares to acquire Tesla, is financially sound given Tesla's recent earnings decline.

Key facts

  • A potential SpaceX-Tesla merger is analyzed for its financial viability.
  • The combined entity could have a valuation of $3.4 trillion.
  • SpaceX's anticipated market cap is $1.75 trillion, Tesla's is $1.65 trillion.
  • SpaceX would issue new shares equivalent to 94% of its current count to absorb Tesla.
  • Tesla's trailing GAAP earnings have fallen from $15 billion in 2023 to $3.9 billion.

Elon Musk is reportedly considering a merger between SpaceX and Tesla, a move that would create an unprecedentedly large entity. The analysis delves into the financial implications, questioning whether the deal's structure, which involves SpaceX issuing a significant number of new shares to acquire Tesla, is financially sound given Tesla's recent earnings decline.

Frequently asked questions

The combined entity could carry a $3.4 trillion valuation, with SpaceX at an anticipated $1.75 trillion and Tesla at $1.65 trillion.

SpaceX would likely issue new shares equivalent to 94% of its current count to absorb Tesla, effectively doubling its share base.

Tesla's trailing GAAP earnings have collapsed from $15 billion in 2023 to $3.9 billion, and core operating earnings are even lower at $2.3 billion.

If completed, it would be nearly three times the size of the largest merger ever completed, raising questions about market overvaluation.

What Happens Next

01Further analysis of the financial logic and potential outcomes of a SpaceX-Tesla merger.

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Cadence

How It Developed

1 Jun · 11:34 AM
A potential SpaceX-Tesla merger could create a $3.4 trillion entity, but analysis suggests it may lose money.
Fortune via PiQSuite
31 May · 3:15 PM
SpaceX is preparing for a $1.8 trillion IPO, with Elon Musk commenting on the difficulty of rocket development.
Yahoo News | Finance Top Stories via PiQSuite
31 May · 2:00 PM
SpaceX's growth relies on Starship and AI, alongside Starlink and launch services.
The Hill via PiQSuite

Sources

T1
Elon Musk's plans for SpaceX depend on Starship and AIm.piqsuite.com
T1
'Rockets are hard': Elon Musk responds to Jeff Bezos' rocket explosion as his own SpaceX glides to a $1.8T IPOm.piqsuite.com
T1
A SpaceX-Tesla union would mark the largest merger of all time. But does the math work?m.piqsuite.com

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