Key facts
- SpaceX is increasingly prioritizing its own Starlink satellite launches over those of rival companies.
- Starlink's share of SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket launches has grown significantly, reaching approximately 79% in 2026.
- Several spacecraft companies have been informed that SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket is fully booked until 2028 or 2029.
- The shift is driven by SpaceX's transition to the new, cheaper, and fully reusable Starship rocket and Starlink's critical role in SpaceX's revenue.
- SpaceX's IPO prospectus indicated a potential prioritization of its own launch payloads over third-party customers.
- Rival launch providers like Blue Origin and ULA are facing delays and technical issues with their rockets.
SpaceX is increasingly reserving capacity on its Falcon 9 rockets for its own Starlink satellites, a move that is squeezing out rival space companies that rely on the company for launches. Starlink's share of SpaceX's launch manifest has grown substantially, from 54% in 2020 to an estimated 79% in 2026, according to data analyzed by astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell.
This prioritization is driven by both economic factors and SpaceX's transition to its new, fully reusable Starship rocket. Analysts estimate that launching a Starlink mission with Starship could generate tens of millions of dollars more in revenue for SpaceX than launching a commercial customer's payload. Starlink is a critical revenue source, accounting for 60% of SpaceX's earnings last year.
Recent reports indicate that at least seven spacecraft companies have been informed that Falcon 9 is fully booked for all mission types until 2028 or 2029. This bottleneck, coupled with SpaceX's own ambitious plans for Starlink expansion, potential orbital AI data centers, and NASA obligations including a moon lander contract, suggests limited availability for external customers in the coming years.
Experts suggest that SpaceX's focus on its internal satellite goals and potential AI market opportunities could lead to immense opportunity costs for not flying its own payloads. The company's IPO prospectus explicitly stated it may prioritize its own launch payloads over third-party customers. This strategy could further increase the cost of space access and disadvantage smaller companies lacking their own orbital-class rockets.
Competitors are facing significant challenges. Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket experienced an explosion on its launchpad, and United Launch Alliance's Vulcan rocket has been grounded due to a booster issue. Rocket Lab, a key competitor, is developing its reusable Neutron rocket and is in the process of acquiring satellite communications firm Iridium. Rocket Lab's CEO, Peter Beck, highlighted their different business model, which relies on a healthy launch market for their component sales, contrasting with SpaceX's integrated approach.