Key facts
- The US Social Security trust fund is projected to be depleted by late 2032.
- This revised timeline is three months earlier than last year's estimate.
- If depleted, Social Security would only be able to pay 78% of promised benefits.
- The tax cuts enacted by President Donald Trump and Congress contributed to the earlier depletion.
- Lower birth rates and net immigration also factored into the revised outlook.
- The combined Social Security funds are projected to reach insolvency in the third quarter of 2034.
The U.S. Social Security trust fund, relied upon by millions of American retirees, is projected to run out of money in late 2032, three months earlier than previously forecast. The government's annual report attributed this shift in part to President Donald Trump's signature tax law enacted last year, which resulted in less income tax paid on Social Security benefits. Lower U.S. birth rates and reduced net immigration also contributed to the altered outlook.
At the time of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund's depletion in the fourth quarter of 2032, it will only be able to pay approximately 78% of scheduled retirement benefits, indicating a 22% cut for beneficiaries. Reserves for the related Disability Insurance trust fund are expected to remain positive for the next 75 years.
However, the two funds combined are projected to reach insolvency in the third quarter of 2034. At that point, the combined fund's income will be sufficient to pay just 83% of scheduled benefits, a percentage that is expected to decline to 65% by the year 2100.