Key facts
- Polymarket upheld a 'No' outcome for a Bitcoin sale contract.
- UMA token holders voted to resolve the market based on disclosure timing.
- Strategy sold 32 BTC between May 26-31, but disclosed on June 1.
- Traders argued the actual sale date should determine resolution.
- The dispute highlights issues with oracle-based resolution rules in prediction markets.
A significant prediction market on Polymarket, with $80 million in trading volume, has concluded amidst controversy. The market wagered on whether MicroStrategy would sell Bitcoin by May 31. Polymarket ultimately upheld a 'No' outcome, a decision made after UMA token holders voted with 98.6% consensus to resolve the market based on the disclosure timing rather than the actual transaction date. MicroStrategy sold 32 BTC, valued at approximately $2.5 million, between May 26 and May 31, but this sale was only officially disclosed via an SEC filing on June 1. Many traders and participants challenged the decision, arguing that the physical transaction date should take precedence over the delayed regulatory filing. This event has sparked a broader debate within the crypto community regarding the transparency and reliability of oracle-based resolution rules in decentralized prediction markets, with calls for more specific contract terms to prevent future semantic disputes.